Development of a GIS-based decision support tool for environmental impact assessment and due-diligence analyses of planned agricultural floating solar systems

Text in EnglishIn recent years, there have been tremendous advances in information technology, robotics, communication technology, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence, resulting in the merging of physical, digital, and biological worlds that have come to be known as the "fourth industrial revolution”. In this context, the present study engages such technology in the green economy and to tackle the techno-economic environmental impact assessments challenges associated with floating solar system applications in the agricultural sector of South Africa. In response, this exploratory study aimed to examine the development of a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based support platform for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and due-diligence analyses for future planned agricultural floating solar systems, especially with the goal to address the vast differences between the environmental impacts for land-based and water-based photovoltaic energy systems. A research gap was identified in the planning processes for implementing floating solar systems in South Africa’s agricultural sector. This inspired the development of a novel GIS-based modelling tool to assist with floating solar system type energy infrastructure planning in the renewable energy discourse. In this context, there are significant challenges and future research avenues for technical and environmental performance modelling in the new sustainable energy transformation. The present dissertation and geographical research ventured into the conceptualisation, designing and development of a software GIS-based decision support tool to assist environmental impact practitioners, project owners and landscape architects to perform environmental scoping and environmental due-diligence analysis for planned floating solar systems in the local agricultural sector. In terms of the aims and objectives of the research, this project aims at the design and development of a dedicated GIS toolset to determine the environmental feasibility around the use of floating solar systems in agricultural applications in South Africa. In this context, the research objectives of this study included the use of computational modelling and simulation techniques to theoretically determine the energy yield predictions and computing environmental impacts/offsets for future planned agricultural floating solar systems in South Africa. The toolset succeeded in determining these aspects in applications where floating solar systems would substitute Eskom grid power. The study succeeded in developing a digital GIS-based computer simulation model for floating solar systems capable of (a) predicting the anticipated energy yield, (b) calculating the environmental offsets achieved by substituting coal-fired generation by floating solar panels, (c) determining the environmental impact and land-use preservation benefits of any floating solar system, and (d) relating these metrics to water-energy-land-food (WELF) nexus parameters suitable for user project viability analysis and decision support. The research project has demonstrated how the proposed GIS toolset supports the body of geographical knowledge in the fields of Energy and Environmental Geography. The new toolset, called EIAcloudGIS, was developed to assist in solving challenges around energy and environmental sustainability analysis when planning new floating solar installations on farms in South Africa. Experiments conducted during the research showed how the geographical study in general, and the toolset in particular, succeeded in solving a real-world problem. Through the formulation and development of GIS-based computer simulation models embedded into GIS layers, this new tool practically supports the National Environmental Management Act (NEMA Act No. 107 of 1998), and in particular, associated EIA processes. The tool also simplifies and semi-automates certain aspects of environmental impact analysis processes for newly envisioned and planned floating solar installations in South Africa.GeographyM.Sc. (Geography

A geo-informatics approach to sustainability assessments of floatovoltaic technology in South African agricultural applications

South African project engineers recently pioneered the first agricultural floating solar photovoltaic tech nology systems in the Western Cape wine region. This effort prepared our country for an imminent large scale diffusion of this exciting new climate solver technology. However, hydro-embedded photovoltaic sys tems interact with environmentally sensitive underlying aquatic ecosystems, causing multiple project as sessment uncertainties (energy, land, air, water) compared to ground-mounted photovoltaics. The dissimi lar behaviour of floatovoltaic technologies delivers a broader and more diversified range of technical advan tages, environmental offset benefits, and economic co-benefits, causing analytical modelling imperfections and tooling mismatches in conventional analytical project assessment techniques. As a universal interna tional real-world problem of significance, the literature review identified critical knowledge and methodology gaps as the primary causes of modelling deficiencies and assessment uncertainties. By following a design thinking methodology, the thesis views the sustainability assessment and modelling problem through a geo graphical information systems lens, thus seeing an academic research opportunity to fill critical knowledge gaps through new theory formulation and geographical knowledge creation. To this end, this philosophi cal investigation proposes a novel object-oriented systems-thinking and climate modelling methodology to study the real-world geospatial behaviour of functioning floatovoltaic systems from a dynamical system thinking perspective. As an empirical feedback-driven object-process methodology, it inspired the thesis to create new knowledge by postulating a new multi-disciplinary sustainability theory to holistically characterise agricultural floatovoltaic projects through ecosystems-based quantitative sustainability profiling criteria. The study breaks new ground at the frontiers of energy geo-informatics by conceptualising a holistic theoretical framework designed for the theoretical characterisation of floatovoltaic technology ecosystem operations in terms of the technical energy, environmental and economic (3E) domain responses. It campaigns for a fully coupled model in ensemble analysis that advances the state-of-the-art by appropriating the 3E theo retical framework as underpinning computer program logic blueprint to synthesise the posited theory in a digital twin simulation. Driven by real-world geo-sensor data, this geospatial digital twin can mimic the geo dynamical behaviour of floatovoltaics through discrete-time computer simulations in real-time and lifetime digital project enactment exercises. The results show that the theoretical 3E framing enables project due diligence and environmental impact assessment reporting as it uniquely incorporates balanced scorecard performance metrics, such as the water-energy-land-food resource impacts, environmental offset benefits and financial feasibility of floatovoltaics. Embedded in a geoinformatics decision-support platform, the 3E theory, framework and model enable numerical project decision-supporting through an analytical hierarchy process. The experimental results obtained with the digital twin model and decision support system show that the desktop-based parametric floatovoltaic synthesis toolset can uniquely characterise the broad and diverse spectrum of performance benefits of floatovoltaics in a 3E sustainability profile. The model uniquely predicts important impact aspects of the technology’s land, air and water preservation qualities, quantifying these impacts in terms of the water, energy, land and food nexus parameters. The proposed GIS model can quantitatively predict most FPV technology unknowns, thus solving a contemporary real-world prob lem that currently jeopardises floating PV project licensing and approvals. Overall, the posited theoretical framework, methodology model, and reported results provide an improved understanding of floating PV renewable energy systems and their real-world behaviour. Amidst a rapidly growing international interest in floatovoltaic solutions, the research advances fresh philosophical ideas with novel theoretical principles that may have far-reaching implications for developing electronic, photovoltaic performance models worldwide.GeographyPh. D. (Geography